The European Parliament published on 30 June a EURO-CEFG study on the implications of Brexit on EU Financial Services that was commissioned by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) to EURO-CEFG. A team of seven legal and economic researchers from Erasmus University Rotterdam and Leiden University drafted a study that addresses both the legal and economic implications of a potential withdrawal of the UK from the EU.
This study addresses the implications and economic impact of several scenarios of the UK leaving the EU in relation to financial services, ranging from a ‘hard Brexit’ without any arrangements concerning financial services to the current state of affairs under the terms of a full EU membership. Special focus is put on a peculiar variation of ‘hard Brexit’, which are the third-country regimes in the current EU secondary legal framework that allow partial access to the EU single market based on ‘equivalence’ on the basis of decisions by the European Commission or national authorities. The study presents these regimes and the extent to which they were already used in the past. The economic analysis looks at three variations of ‘hard Brexit’ (one, in which the access to the single market is closed, one with partial access based on equivalence and one, in which the City of London is transformed into an ‘offshore financial centre’) and at the scenario, in which the UK joins the EEA. The economic assessment is based on the current state of affairs in relation to the interwovenness of financial services in the EU28 including a closer look at the importance of UK-based clearing of Euro denominated trades.